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Bitcoin up, MicroStrategy down over past 30 days

Bitcoin up, MicroStrategy down over past 30 days MicroStrategy (MSTR) traders returned from their holiday break to disappointing returns on their leveraged bitcoin (BTC) stock. Over the past month, BTC has rallied 3% while MicroStrategy has declined 12%. This is despite founder Michael Saylor’s boasts of a 74.3% “bitcoin yield” for shareholders on a dilution-adjusted basis for the 2024 fiscal year. This includes his recent addition of 1,070 BTC to the company’s stack. As MicroStrategy’s tiny software business has declined to a de minimis portion of its market capitalization, investors value the firm based almost entirely on its BTC holdings. As of publication time, the company holds $45 billion worth of BTC but its market cap is $88 billion — 93% higher. Investors call this 1.93X multiplier MicroStrategy’s “Net Asset Value premium,” “NAV multiple,” or simply “mNAV.” Despite the generous premium, this multiple...

The math behind MicroStrategy's bitcoin bet

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) was yesterday’s most-traded stock on US stock markets — and will post similarly spectacular numbers today. Opening for trading 13% higher than yesterday’s close, within an hour MicroStrategy had turned over 30 million shares of volume, dwarfing its full-day average of 19 million. The company owns 331,200 bitcoins worth over $32 billion and could be buying more during today’s session. As of mid-morning, its market capitalization was $103 billion — a 3.3 multiple on its bitcoin holdings. The company has announced financing to purchase tens of billions of dollars more. Behind these numbers is a massive, non-public market for privately negotiated share offerings and corporate debt. MicroStrategy’s acquisition of bitcoin is fueled by leverage. It has two primary instruments for raising capital: selling shares or bonds. Below is the context to understand the math behind these two instruments as they apply to MicroStrategy today. ...